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Miami, FL - Miami has been ranked the most at-risk housing market in the world for the second consecutive year.
According to the 2025 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, the report cites rapid home price growth and a widening gap between property values and local income levels as key reasons for the city’s elevated risk rating.
The UBS analysis defines a housing bubble as a period when home prices become substantially overvalued compared to economic fundamentals.
Miami’s risk score of 1.73 places it well above the bubble-risk threshold of 1.5, driven by years of rapid price appreciation and strong investor demand.
Since 2019, median single-family home prices across South Florida have risen by roughly 70%, while household income growth has not kept pace.
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Experts note that the market has recently cooled as more listings come online and affordability pressures increase.
High mortgage rates, rising insurance premiums, and elevated property taxes have made it difficult for many residents, especially younger buyers, to purchase homes.
Despite these challenges, Miami’s population growth and low unemployment rate continue to sustain housing demand.
Economists from the Miami Association of Realtors have countered that the city’s price increases reflect solid supply and demand fundamentals rather than speculative behavior.
UBS analysts, however, caution that while a market crash is unlikely, the risk of price correction remains significant given the sharp rise in valuations over the past five years.